๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ ๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ
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Musk Tweet Rhythm Trader

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Elon Musk # tweets March 31 - April 7, 2026?

0.85 days elapsed · 6.15 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

39

excl. replies

Predicted Total

326

12% confidence BURST

Daily Rate

45.9

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.93

posts/hour

Today

31

Rhythm: 2.93x ACTIVE

Progress 12.1%
ฯƒ V3b: 92.3 | ฯƒ MR: 92.3 | pred: 326 (flat=324)

Predicted Range: 320-339 posts

Model: 8.6% · Market: 7.5%

+1.1% edge

Market Distribution (30 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
20-39 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $2,595,945
40-59 0.1% 0.1%(0.1) +0.1% $68,667
60-79 0.1% 0.2%(0.2) +0.1% $58,577
80-99 0.1% 0.3%(0.4) +0.3% $91,764
100-119 0.1% 0.6%(0.6) +0.5% $51,327
120-139 0.1% 0.9%(1.0) +0.8% $57,845
140-159 0.2% 1.4%(1.6) +1.2% $65,136
160-179 0.6% 2.1%(2.3) +1.5% $58,745
180-199 1.2% 2.9%(3.2) +1.7% $36,470
200-219 6.5% 3.9%(4.2) -2.6% $36,018
220-239 13.5% 5.0%(5.3) -8.5% $54,369
240-259 17.5% 6.2%(6.4) -11.3% $43,615
260-279 16.5% 7.2%(7.4) -9.3% $46,600
280-299 15.0% 8.0%(8.2) -7.0% $36,832
300-319 12.5% 8.5%(8.6) -4.0% $32,900
320-339 7.5% 8.6%(8.6) +1.1% $24,884
340-359 5.1% 8.3%(8.2) +3.2% $27,040
360-379 3.0% 7.7%(7.5) +4.7% $27,682
380-399 2.6% 6.8%(6.5) +4.1% $32,250
400-419 2.1% 5.7%(5.4) +3.7% $24,824
420-439 1.2% 4.6%(4.3) +3.3% $27,542
440-459 0.8% 3.5%(3.3) +2.8% $21,822
460-479 0.4% 2.6%(2.4) +2.1% $20,929
480-499 0.4% 1.8%(1.6) +1.4% $19,316
500-519 0.4% 1.2%(1.1) +0.8% $28,930
520-539 0.2% 0.8%(0.7) +0.5% $27,345
540-559 0.2% 0.5%(0.4) +0.3% $31,879
560-579 0.1% 0.3%(0.2) +0.2% $45,986
580+ 0.1% 0.3%(0.2) +0.1% $88,601
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $377,543
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

12.1% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=12%<80%

Elon Musk # tweets March 30 - April 1, 2026?

1.85 days elapsed · 0.15 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

77

excl. replies

Predicted Total

85

93% confidence BURST SHORT

Daily Rate

41.6

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.76

posts/hour

Today

31

Rhythm: 2.93x ACTIVE

Progress 92.5%
ฯƒ V3b: 7.9 | ฯƒ MR: 7.9 | pred: 85 (flat=83)

Predicted Range: 65-89 posts

Model: 68.8% · Market: 80.5%

-11.7% edge

Market Distribution (10 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
65-89 80.5% 68.8% -11.7% $203,538
90-114 19.4% 31.2% +11.8% $254,051
115-139 0.4% 0.0% -0.4% $225,595
140-164 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $168,337
165-189 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $156,252
190-214 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $83,014
215-239 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $52,244
240+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $65,506
<40 SETTLED LOST - - $339,004
40-64 SETTLED LOST - - $386,022
Hedge Evaluation ACTIVE โ€” 2 live legs

Progress

92.5% / 50.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3, 2026?

4.85 days elapsed · 2.15 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

179

excl. replies

Predicted Total

266

69% confidence BURST

Daily Rate

36.9

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.66

posts/hour

Today

31

Rhythm: 2.93x ACTIVE

Progress 69.3%
ฯƒ V3b: 35.0 | ฯƒ MR: 35.0 | pred: 266 (flat=265)

Predicted Range: 260-279 posts

Model: 22.5% · Market: 30.5%

-8.0% edge

Market Distribution (30 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
160-179 0.1% 0.1%(0.0) 0.0% $396,218
180-199 0.1% 2.3%(1.0) +2.2% $465,586
200-219 1.1% 6.5%(3.4) +5.5% $346,547
220-239 9.3% 13.5%(8.7) +4.2% $324,960
240-259 36.1% 20.4%(16.1) -15.7% $308,884
260-279 30.5% 22.5%(21.8) -8.0% $258,404
280-299 15.5% 18.0%(21.5) +2.5% $211,913
300-319 5.2% 10.5%(15.4) +5.3% $183,334
320-339 2.5% 4.5%(8.0) +1.9% $177,271
340-359 0.4% 1.4%(3.0) +0.9% $154,234
360-379 0.4% 0.3%(0.8) -0.0% $152,544
380-399 0.1% 0.1%(0.2) -0.1% $204,562
400-419 0.1% 0.0%(0.0) -0.1% $258,785
420-439 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $284,916
440-459 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $216,880
460-479 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $215,095
480-499 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $179,282
500-519 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $154,983
520-539 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $123,686
540-559 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $136,030
560-579 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $108,922
580+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $126,664
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $128,980
20-39 SETTLED LOST - - $5,041,855
40-59 SETTLED LOST - - $1,499,206
60-79 SETTLED LOST - - $186,779
80-99 SETTLED LOST - - $2,491,758
100-119 SETTLED LOST - - $332,851
120-139 SETTLED LOST - - $319,892
140-159 SETTLED LOST - - $407,849
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

69.3% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=69%<80%

Open Positions

No open positions

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Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Recent Posts

@elonmusk (10 latest)

Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.

Strategy

How it works:

  1. Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
  2. Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
  3. Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
  4. Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing

Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.

Order Types

Market Immediate fill at current price. Used when edge is strong and confidence is high.
Limit GTC limit order placed below market price. Fills only if price dips โ€” better entry at lower risk.

Glossary

Market Current YES price on Polymarket (i.e. what traders think the probability is).
Model Our predicted probability for this range, based on current posting rhythm.
Edge Model โˆ’ Market. Positive = underpriced opportunity. Negative = overpriced.
Shares Outcome tokens. Each share pays $1 if the outcome is correct, $0 otherwise.
Convergence How stable the prediction is (rate of change). Higher = more reliable signal.
Progress % of the event's counting period that has elapsed.

Rate Quality

Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence โ†’ lower edge threshold.

Normal Posting rate is stable and within expected range. Highest confidence.
Burst Posting rate spiking well above average. Model is cautious โ€” requires higher edge to trade.
Lull Posting rate is below average. Temporary slowdown โ€” model is slightly cautious.
Sleep Gap No posts in 2h+, likely sleeping. Model leans on historical averages until activity resumes.
Low Data Extended silence (6h+). Very low confidence โ€” model requires much higher edge to act.
๐• Unstable Twitter health check failing (30minโ€“2h). Treated as lull โ€” higher edge required.
๐• Outage Twitter down 2h+. Tweet count stale โ€” all signals paused until recovery.

Risk Controls

Take Profit Auto-sell when return exceeds target. Locks in gains.
Stop Loss Auto-sell when loss exceeds threshold. Limits downside.
Spike Pause Pauses new entries during rapid posting bursts to avoid chasing volatility.
Time Exit Closes positions near event end to avoid resolution risk.

Config

Active Events 3
Poll Interval 120s
Trade Sizing $2 โ€“ $4.0

Data: XTracker · Prices: Gamma API

Counting: Posts + Quotes + Reposts

Replies do NOT count