๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ ๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ
M

Musk Tweet Rhythm Trader

LIVE
Login
History Report Settings

Elon Musk # tweets March 31 - April 7, 2026?

0.89 days elapsed · 6.11 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

42

excl. replies

Predicted Total

324

13% confidence

Daily Rate

47.0

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.92

posts/hour

Today

31

Rhythm: 2.13x

Progress 12.8%
ฯƒ V3b: 91.0 | ฯƒ MR: 91.0 | pred: 324 (flat=323)

Predicted Range: 320-339 posts

Model: 8.7% · Market: 8.5%

+0.2% edge

Market Distribution (30 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
20-39 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $2,595,945
40-59 0.1% 0.1%(0.1) +0.0% $68,667
60-79 0.1% 0.2%(0.2) +0.1% $58,577
80-99 0.1% 0.3%(0.4) +0.3% $91,764
100-119 0.1% 0.6%(0.6) +0.5% $51,327
120-139 0.1% 0.9%(1.0) +0.8% $59,850
140-159 0.2% 1.4%(1.5) +1.2% $67,635
160-179 0.7% 2.1%(2.3) +1.5% $61,511
180-199 1.2% 3.0%(3.2) +1.8% $39,915
200-219 4.5% 4.0%(4.2) -0.5% $37,994
220-239 12.5% 5.1%(5.4) -7.4% $55,666
240-259 13.5% 6.3%(6.5) -7.2% $47,833
260-279 16.5% 7.3%(7.5) -9.1% $48,523
280-299 15.5% 8.2%(8.3) -7.3% $38,223
300-319 12.5% 8.7%(8.7) -3.8% $36,505
320-339 8.5% 8.7%(8.7) +0.2% $25,931
340-359 7.0% 8.4%(8.3) +1.4% $28,747
360-379 4.8% 7.7%(7.5) +3.0% $28,691
380-399 3.5% 6.7%(6.5) +3.2% $33,299
400-419 2.1% 5.6%(5.4) +3.6% $25,483
420-439 1.5% 4.5%(4.2) +3.0% $28,142
440-459 0.8% 3.4%(3.2) +2.6% $22,520
460-479 0.4% 2.4%(2.3) +2.0% $21,389
480-499 0.4% 1.7%(1.5) +1.3% $19,819
500-519 0.4% 1.1%(1.0) +0.7% $29,268
520-539 0.2% 0.7%(0.6) +0.4% $27,827
540-559 0.1% 0.4%(0.4) +0.3% $32,160
560-579 0.1% 0.2%(0.2) +0.2% $45,986
580+ 0.1% 0.2%(0.2) +0.1% $89,093
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $377,543
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

12.8% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=13%<80%

Elon Musk # tweets March 30 - April 1, 2026?

1.89 days elapsed · 0.11 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

80

excl. replies

Predicted Total

86

95% confidence SHORT

Daily Rate

42.3

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.78

posts/hour

Today

31

Rhythm: 2.13x

Progress 94.7%
ฯƒ V3b: 6.6 | ฯƒ MR: 6.6 | pred: 86 (flat=85)

Predicted Range: 65-89 posts

Model: 66.7% · Market: 91.5%

-24.8% edge

Market Distribution (10 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
65-89 91.5% 66.7% -24.8% $230,214
90-114 7.8% 33.3% +25.5% $281,390
115-139 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $268,382
140-164 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $173,525
165-189 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $156,440
190-214 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $83,014
215-239 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $52,244
240+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $65,506
<40 SETTLED LOST - - $339,004
40-64 SETTLED LOST - - $386,022
Hedge Evaluation ACTIVE โ€” 2 live legs

Progress

94.7% / 50.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3, 2026?

4.89 days elapsed · 2.11 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

182

excl. replies

Predicted Total

267

70% confidence

Daily Rate

37.2

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.67

posts/hour

Today

31

Rhythm: 2.13x

Progress 69.9%
ฯƒ V3b: 34.4 | ฯƒ MR: 34.4 | pred: 267 (flat=266)

Predicted Range: 260-279 posts

Model: 22.9% · Market: 33.0%

-10.1% edge

Market Distribution (30 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
160-179 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $420,644
180-199 0.1% 1.9%(0.8) +1.9% $491,811
200-219 0.8% 6.1%(3.1) +5.3% $380,308
220-239 9.8% 13.1%(8.2) +3.3% $342,397
240-259 33.8% 20.4%(15.8) -13.4% $329,747
260-279 33.0% 22.9%(22.0) -10.1% $264,458
280-299 14.5% 18.5%(22.0) +4.0% $226,007
300-319 4.7% 10.8%(15.8) +6.1% $188,865
320-339 2.2% 4.5%(8.2) +2.3% $183,413
340-359 0.5% 1.4%(3.1) +0.8% $161,701
360-379 0.5% 0.3%(0.8) -0.2% $156,580
380-399 0.1% 0.1%(0.2) -0.1% $208,336
400-419 0.1% 0.0%(0.0) -0.1% $275,689
420-439 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $284,916
440-459 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $216,880
460-479 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $215,095
480-499 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $179,282
500-519 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $154,983
520-539 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $123,686
540-559 0.1% 0.0% -0.0% $136,030
560-579 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $108,922
580+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $126,664
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $128,980
20-39 SETTLED LOST - - $5,041,855
40-59 SETTLED LOST - - $1,499,206
60-79 SETTLED LOST - - $186,779
80-99 SETTLED LOST - - $2,491,758
100-119 SETTLED LOST - - $332,851
120-139 SETTLED LOST - - $319,892
140-159 SETTLED LOST - - $407,849
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

69.9% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=70%<80%

Open Positions

No open positions

Click "Trade" on a signal to open a live trade

View trade history →

Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Recent Posts

@elonmusk (10 latest)

Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.

Strategy

How it works:

  1. Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
  2. Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
  3. Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
  4. Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing

Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.

Order Types

Market Immediate fill at current price. Used when edge is strong and confidence is high.
Limit GTC limit order placed below market price. Fills only if price dips โ€” better entry at lower risk.

Glossary

Market Current YES price on Polymarket (i.e. what traders think the probability is).
Model Our predicted probability for this range, based on current posting rhythm.
Edge Model โˆ’ Market. Positive = underpriced opportunity. Negative = overpriced.
Shares Outcome tokens. Each share pays $1 if the outcome is correct, $0 otherwise.
Convergence How stable the prediction is (rate of change). Higher = more reliable signal.
Progress % of the event's counting period that has elapsed.

Rate Quality

Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence โ†’ lower edge threshold.

Normal Posting rate is stable and within expected range. Highest confidence.
Burst Posting rate spiking well above average. Model is cautious โ€” requires higher edge to trade.
Lull Posting rate is below average. Temporary slowdown โ€” model is slightly cautious.
Sleep Gap No posts in 2h+, likely sleeping. Model leans on historical averages until activity resumes.
Low Data Extended silence (6h+). Very low confidence โ€” model requires much higher edge to act.
๐• Unstable Twitter health check failing (30minโ€“2h). Treated as lull โ€” higher edge required.
๐• Outage Twitter down 2h+. Tweet count stale โ€” all signals paused until recovery.

Risk Controls

Take Profit Auto-sell when return exceeds target. Locks in gains.
Stop Loss Auto-sell when loss exceeds threshold. Limits downside.
Spike Pause Pauses new entries during rapid posting bursts to avoid chasing volatility.
Time Exit Closes positions near event end to avoid resolution risk.

Config

Active Events 3
Poll Interval 120s
Trade Sizing $2 โ€“ $4.0

Data: XTracker · Prices: Gamma API

Counting: Posts + Quotes + Reposts

Replies do NOT count