Musk Tweet Rhythm Trader

Elon Musk # tweets June 30 - July 7, 2026?

1.66 days elapsed · 5.34 days left

ACTIVE

Current Posts

excl. replies

Predicted Total

166

24% confidence SLEEP GAP

Daily Rate

21.0

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.04

posts/hour

Today

Rhythm: 0.0x

Progress 23.8%

pred V3b: 166 (σ=47.7) | pred B: 166 (σ=47.7, win=24h) | flat: 168

Predicted Range: 160-179 posts

Model: 16.6% · Market: 16.0%

+0.6% edge

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market

Range	Market	Model	Edge	Volume
20-39	0.1%	0.1%	+0.0%	$5,115
40-59	0.1%	0.9%	+0.8%	$5,495
60-79	0.1%	2.3%	+2.2%	$16,629
80-99	0.1%	4.8%	+4.7%	$62,967
100-119	0.5%	8.5%	+7.9%	$20,011
120-139	2.1%	12.6%	+10.5%	$33,112
140-159	6.9%	15.8%	+8.9%	$36,340
160-179	16.0%	16.6%	+0.6%	$18,691
180-199	21.0%	14.7%	-6.3%	$14,154
200-219	23.0%	10.9%	-12.0%	$14,326
220-239	19.0%	6.9%	-12.1%	$16,686
240-259	9.0%	3.6%	-5.4%	$23,876
260-279	5.0%	1.6%	-3.4%	$15,312
280-299	1.9%	0.6%	-1.3%	$17,006
300-319	0.6%	0.2%	-0.4%	$23,367
320-339	0.4%	0.1%	-0.4%	$29,009
340-359	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2%	$60,666
360-379	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$52,570
380-399	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$31,705
400-419	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$35,844
420-439	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$31,570
440-459	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$62,275
460-479	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$63,976
480-499	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$58,973
500+	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$102,458
<20 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$3,115

Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

23.8% / 80.0%

Coverage

Bundle Cost

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=24%<80%

Elon Musk # tweets June 26 - July 3, 2026?

5.66 days elapsed · 1.34 days left

ACTIVE

Current Posts

170

excl. replies

Predicted Total

202

81% confidence SLEEP GAP

Daily Rate

30.0

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.09

posts/hour

Today

Rhythm: 0.0x

Progress 80.9%

pred V3b: 202 (σ=17.7) | pred B: 202 (σ=23.1, win=24h) | flat: 205

Predicted Range: 200-219 posts

Model: 40.5% · Market: 50.0%

-9.5% edge

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market

Range	Market	Model	Edge	Volume
160-179	0.9%	7.4%(9.5)	+6.5%	$246,238
180-199	24.6%	36.1%(32.2)	+11.5%	$208,338
200-219	50.0%	40.5%(34.5)	-9.5%	$127,207
220-239	21.0%	14.4%(18.3)	-6.6%	$112,748
240-259	3.8%	1.6%(4.8)	-2.2%	$164,838
260-279	0.8%	0.1%(0.6)	-0.7%	$172,152
280-299	0.3%	0.0%(0.0)	-0.3%	$144,115
300-319	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$133,177
320-339	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$137,925
340-359	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$122,065
360-379	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$177,310
380-399	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$103,228
400-419	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$71,450
420-439	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$49,053
440-459	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$92,313
460-479	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$83,398
480-499	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$102,811
500+	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	$131,678
<20 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$16,441
20-39 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$7,442
40-59 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$3,158
60-79 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$21,470
80-99 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$131,405
100-119 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$160,347
120-139 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$158,310
140-159 SETTLED	LOST	-	-	$159,389

Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

80.9% / 80.0%

Coverage

90.9%

Bundle Cost

$0.956

-5.4%

Ranges

3 / 3

200-219 40.5% $0.5 -9.5%

180-199 36.1% $0.246 +11.5%

220-239 14.4% $0.21 -6.6%

Blocked: cost=$0.96>=$0.9, EV=-5.4%<=0

Open Positions

No open positions

Click "Trade" on a signal to open a live trade

View trade history →

Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Strategy

How it works:

Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing

Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.

Order Types

Market Immediate fill at current price. Used when edge is strong and confidence is high.

Limit GTC limit order placed below market price. Fills only if price dips — better entry at lower risk.

Glossary

Market Current YES price on Polymarket (i.e. what traders think the probability is).

Model Our predicted probability for this range, based on current posting rhythm.

Edge Model − Market. Positive = underpriced opportunity. Negative = overpriced.

Shares Outcome tokens. Each share pays $1 if the outcome is correct, $0 otherwise.

Convergence How stable the prediction is (rate of change). Higher = more reliable signal.

Progress % of the event's counting period that has elapsed.

Rate Quality

Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence → lower edge threshold.

Normal Posting rate is stable and within expected range. Highest confidence.

Burst Posting rate spiking well above average. Model is cautious — requires higher edge to trade.

Lull Posting rate is below average. Temporary slowdown — model is slightly cautious.

Sleep Gap No posts in 2h+, likely sleeping. Model leans on historical averages until activity resumes.

Low Data Extended silence (6h+). Very low confidence — model requires much higher edge to act.

𝕏 Unstable Twitter health check failing (30min–2h). Treated as lull — higher edge required.

𝕏 Outage Twitter down 2h+. Tweet count stale — all signals paused until recovery.

Risk Controls

Take Profit Auto-sell when return exceeds target. Locks in gains.

Stop Loss Auto-sell when loss exceeds threshold. Limits downside.

Spike Pause Pauses new entries during rapid posting bursts to avoid chasing volatility.

Time Exit Closes positions near event end to avoid resolution risk.

Config

Active Events 2

Poll Interval 120s

Trade Sizing $2 – $4.0

Data: XTracker · Prices: Gamma API

Counting: Posts + Quotes + Reposts

Replies do NOT count

Elon Musk # tweets June 30 - July 7, 2026?

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Elon Musk # tweets June 26 - July 3, 2026?

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Open Positions

Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Recent Posts

Strategy

Order Types

Glossary

Rate Quality

Risk Controls

Config