๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ ๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ
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Musk Tweet Rhythm Trader

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Elon Musk # tweets May 16 - May 18, 2026?

0.9 days elapsed · 1.1 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

33

excl. replies

Predicted Total

68

45% confidence SLEEP GAP SHORT

Daily Rate

36.8

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.3

posts/hour

Today

12

Rhythm: 0.0x

Progress 44.8%
pred V3b: 68 (ฯƒ=18.7) | pred B: 68 (ฯƒ=18.7, win=6h) | flat: 67

Predicted Range: 65-89 posts

Model: 45.8% · Market: 32.0%

+13.8% edge

Market Distribution (10 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
<40 0.9% 3.8% +2.9% $150,364
40-64 66.0% 38.1% -27.9% $49,335
65-89 32.0% 45.8% +13.8% $56,513
90-114 2.2% 11.7% +9.5% $78,606
115-139 0.5% 0.6% +0.1% $58,248
140-164 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $59,592
165-189 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $53,265
190-214 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $36,291
215-239 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $14,853
240+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $16,696
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

44.8% / 50.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=45%<50%

Elon Musk # tweets May 15 - May 22, 2026?

1.9 days elapsed · 5.1 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

60

excl. replies

Predicted Total

201

27% confidence SLEEP GAP

Daily Rate

31.6

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.14

posts/hour

Today

12

Rhythm: 0.0x

Progress 27.1%
pred V3b: 201 (ฯƒ=50.7) | pred B: 201 (ฯƒ=50.7, win=24h) | flat: 200

Predicted Range: 200-219 posts

Model: 15.4% · Market: 19.6%

-4.2% edge

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
40-59 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $185,524
60-79 0.1% 0.6% +0.5% $258,849
80-99 0.2% 1.5% +1.3% $245,722
100-119 0.9% 3.2% +2.3% $226,267
120-139 3.1% 6.0% +2.9% $172,329
140-159 9.0% 9.5% +0.5% $153,779
160-179 15.0% 13.0% -2.0% $125,933
180-199 20.0% 15.3% -4.7% $109,497
200-219 19.6% 15.4% -4.2% $151,448
220-239 13.4% 13.3% -0.1% $141,896
240-259 8.2% 9.9% +1.7% $105,855
260-279 5.3% 6.3% +1.0% $112,375
280-299 3.2% 3.4% +0.2% $102,634
300-319 1.4% 1.6% +0.2% $130,272
320-339 1.1% 0.6% -0.5% $106,025
340-359 0.6% 0.2% -0.4% $135,473
360-379 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% $134,170
380-399 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% $149,493
400-419 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% $167,076
420-439 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $232,720
440-459 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $121,203
460-479 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $125,876
480-499 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $168,834
500+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $268,921
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $194,441
20-39 SETTLED LOST - - $120,079
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

27.1% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=27%<80%

Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?

4.9 days elapsed · 2.1 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

148

excl. replies

Predicted Total

211

70% confidence SLEEP GAP

Daily Rate

30.2

posts/day

Hourly Rate

1.22

posts/hour

Today

12

Rhythm: 0.0x

Progress 69.9%
pred V3b: 211 (ฯƒ=27.5) | pred B: 211 (ฯƒ=35.8, win=24h) | flat: 210

Predicted Range: 200-219 posts

Model: 28.7% · Market: 38.2%

-9.5% edge

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
140-159 0.1% 2.1%(4.0) +2.0% $586,249
160-179 4.9% 9.9%(12.1) +5.0% $426,205
180-199 40.1% 21.7%(19.4) -18.4% $355,810
200-219 38.2% 28.7%(22.9) -9.5% $337,168
220-239 13.7% 22.8%(20.0) +9.1% $353,963
240-259 2.4% 11.0%(12.8) +8.6% $292,788
260-279 0.9% 3.2%(6.1) +2.3% $286,198
280-299 0.4% 0.5%(2.1) +0.2% $259,199
300-319 0.3% 0.1%(0.5) -0.2% $316,623
320-339 0.2% 0.0%(0.1) -0.2% $366,005
340-359 0.1% 0.0%(0.0) -0.1% $429,849
360-379 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $415,741
380-399 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $400,319
400-419 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% $524,096
420-439 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $157,801
440-459 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $82,148
460-479 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $67,044
480-499 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $29,190
500+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $241,769
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $578,851
20-39 SETTLED LOST - - $518,538
40-59 SETTLED LOST - - $481,167
60-79 SETTLED LOST - - $409,717
80-99 SETTLED LOST - - $332,958
100-119 SETTLED LOST - - $483,224
120-139 SETTLED LOST - - $597,218
Hedge Evaluation WAITING

Progress

69.9% / 80.0%

Coverage

0%

Bundle Cost

$0

EV

0%

Ranges

0 / 0

Blocked: progress=70%<80%

Open Positions

No open positions

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Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Recent Posts

@elonmusk (10 latest)

Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.

Strategy

How it works:

  1. Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
  2. Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
  3. Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
  4. Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing

Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.

Order Types

Market Immediate fill at current price. Used when edge is strong and confidence is high.
Limit GTC limit order placed below market price. Fills only if price dips โ€” better entry at lower risk.

Glossary

Market Current YES price on Polymarket (i.e. what traders think the probability is).
Model Our predicted probability for this range, based on current posting rhythm.
Edge Model โˆ’ Market. Positive = underpriced opportunity. Negative = overpriced.
Shares Outcome tokens. Each share pays $1 if the outcome is correct, $0 otherwise.
Convergence How stable the prediction is (rate of change). Higher = more reliable signal.
Progress % of the event's counting period that has elapsed.

Rate Quality

Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence โ†’ lower edge threshold.

Normal Posting rate is stable and within expected range. Highest confidence.
Burst Posting rate spiking well above average. Model is cautious โ€” requires higher edge to trade.
Lull Posting rate is below average. Temporary slowdown โ€” model is slightly cautious.
Sleep Gap No posts in 2h+, likely sleeping. Model leans on historical averages until activity resumes.
Low Data Extended silence (6h+). Very low confidence โ€” model requires much higher edge to act.
๐• Unstable Twitter health check failing (30minโ€“2h). Treated as lull โ€” higher edge required.
๐• Outage Twitter down 2h+. Tweet count stale โ€” all signals paused until recovery.

Risk Controls

Take Profit Auto-sell when return exceeds target. Locks in gains.
Stop Loss Auto-sell when loss exceeds threshold. Limits downside.
Spike Pause Pauses new entries during rapid posting bursts to avoid chasing volatility.
Time Exit Closes positions near event end to avoid resolution risk.

Config

Active Events 3
Poll Interval 120s
Trade Sizing $2 โ€“ $4.0

Data: XTracker · Prices: Gamma API

Counting: Posts + Quotes + Reposts

Replies do NOT count