Elon Musk # tweets October 1 - October 3, 2026?
Current Posts
29
excl. replies
Predicted Total
85
22% confidence SLEEP GAP SHORT
Daily Rate
64.8
posts/day
Hourly Rate
1.51
posts/hour
Today
0
Rhythm: 0.0x
Predicted Range: 65-89 posts
Model: 36.8% · Market: 53.0%
Market Distribution (10 ranges)
| Range | Market | Model | Edge | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40 | 0.7% | 2.5% | +1.8% | $25,810 |
| 40-64 | 35.0% | 18.0% | -17.0% | $14,813 |
| 65-89 | 53.0% | 36.8% | -16.2% | $9,583 |
| 90-114 | 12.3% | 30.7% | +18.4% | $8,174 |
| 115-139 | 1.1% | 10.5% | +9.4% | $11,540 |
| 140-164 | 0.2% | 1.5% | +1.3% | $4,821 |
| 165-189 | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% | $9,894 |
| 190-214 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $3,935 |
| 215-239 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $832 |
| 240+ | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $792 |
Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026?
Current Posts
96
excl. replies
Predicted Total
251
35% confidence SLEEP GAP
Daily Rate
39.2
posts/day
Hourly Rate
1.43
posts/hour
Today
0
Rhythm: 0.0x
Predicted Range: 240-259 posts
Model: 14.5% · Market: 18.0%
Market Distribution (26 ranges)
| Range | Market | Model | Edge | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80-99 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0% | $29,630 |
| 100-119 | 0.1% | 0.6% | +0.5% | $26,928 |
| 120-139 | 0.2% | 1.3% | +1.1% | $41,422 |
| 140-159 | 0.3% | 2.7% | +2.4% | $31,675 |
| 160-179 | 3.5% | 4.9% | +1.4% | $20,801 |
| 180-199 | 12.0% | 7.9% | -4.1% | $36,671 |
| 200-219 | 23.0% | 11.0% | -12.0% | $21,525 |
| 220-239 | 25.0% | 13.5% | -11.5% | $12,328 |
| 240-259 | 18.0% | 14.5% | -3.5% | $17,340 |
| 260-279 | 11.0% | 13.7% | +2.7% | $26,578 |
| 280-299 | 5.2% | 11.3% | +6.1% | $26,593 |
| 300-319 | 2.6% | 8.2% | +5.6% | $29,521 |
| 320-339 | 1.3% | 5.2% | +3.9% | $19,334 |
| 340-359 | 0.6% | 2.9% | +2.3% | $20,791 |
| 360-379 | 0.4% | 1.4% | +1.0% | $22,489 |
| 380-399 | 0.3% | 0.6% | +0.3% | $23,804 |
| 400-419 | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% | $19,746 |
| 420-439 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.0% | $10,567 |
| 440-459 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $12,729 |
| 460-479 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $10,923 |
| 480-499 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $10,933 |
| 500+ | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $29,307 |
| <20 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $1,069 |
| 20-39 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $1,107 |
| 40-59 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $5,747 |
| 60-79 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $6,686 |
Elon Musk # tweets September 25 - October 2, 2026?
Current Posts
207
excl. replies
Predicted Total
223
92% confidence SLEEP GAP
Daily Rate
32.1
posts/day
Hourly Rate
1.26
posts/hour
Today
0
Rhythm: 0.0x
Predicted Range: 220-239 posts
Model: 57.6% · Market: 66.0%
Market Distribution (26 ranges)
| Range | Market | Model | Edge | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 27.0% | 34.2%(32.2) | +7.2% | $182,419 |
| 220-239 | 66.0% | 57.6%(52.2) | -8.4% | $170,645 |
| 240-259 | 8.2% | 8.1%(14.7) | -0.1% | $172,959 |
| 260-279 | 0.7% | 0.1%(0.9) | -0.6% | $174,346 |
| 280-299 | 0.2% | 0.0%(0.0) | -0.2% | $154,014 |
| 300-319 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $124,582 |
| 320-339 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $81,303 |
| 340-359 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $58,542 |
| 360-379 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $48,658 |
| 380-399 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $46,541 |
| 400-419 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $54,540 |
| 420-439 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $26,262 |
| 440-459 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $26,982 |
| 460-479 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $28,399 |
| 480-499 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $32,287 |
| 500+ | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | $52,189 |
| <20 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $4,253 |
| 20-39 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $164 |
| 40-59 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $164 |
| 60-79 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $18,844 |
| 80-99 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $27,478 |
| 100-119 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $39,280 |
| 120-139 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $95,011 |
| 140-159 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $175,669 |
| 160-179 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $357,223 |
| 180-199 SETTLED | LOST | - | - | $284,379 |
Open Positions
Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)
Recent Posts
@elonmusk (10 latest)Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.
Up next, Falcon Heavy will launch the NROL-97 mission from Launch Complex 39A in Florida โ https://spacex.com/launches/nrol97 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTlPmruXYAEsSYW.jpg
2026-10-01T23:48:23
Watch Dragon and the Crew-13 astronauts dock with the @Space_Station https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1qxvveVOnoRxB
2026-10-01T23:34:37
Plot twist: Your next flight might have better Wi-Fi than your home. @Starlink, Wi-Fi coming in 2027. ๐โ๏ธ https://news.flyfrontier.com/frontier-airlines-to-offer-starlink-the-fastest-wifi-in-the-sky/
2026-10-01T20:48:23
Proud that https://america.gov is powered by Grok. No more sifting through the maze of government websites to find an answer. Free, no account required, no ads. Try it, it's beautiful!
2026-10-01T20:45:47
SpaceX 2006 vs 2026 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTh9D4aWIAA1NGV.jpg
2026-10-01T20:45:40
Major speed improvements to @Bot
2026-10-01T20:24:44
Grok @Bot is an amazing assistant
2026-10-01T20:09:49
The nation owes a debt to @JGebbia and his excellent team. They worked incredibly hard, with no compensation, to make government services work better for all Americans. ๐ซก ๐บ๐ธ
2026-10-01T20:08:43
Frontier installing @Starlink in 2027
2026-10-01T20:06:29
when i was a teen i was a little emo, and i think it was because i felt like i didnt control anything important about my life. looking back with knowledge now, there were a nearly infinite number of higher agency paths i could have taken. my life was always more free than i knew
2026-10-01T19:42:18
Strategy
How it works:
- Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
- Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
- Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
- Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing
Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.
Order Types
Glossary
Rate Quality
Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence โ lower edge threshold.