๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ ๐Ÿ’• Happy Valentine's Day ๐Ÿ’ ๐ŸŽ‚ Happy Birthday ๐ŸŽ‰๐ŸŽˆ ๐Ÿงง Happy Chinese New Year ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽ† ๐ŸŒน Love is in the air ~ Wishing you sweetness today ๐Ÿ’— ๐ŸŽ Another year older, another year bolder! ๐Ÿฅณโœจ ๐Ÿฎ Gong Xi Fa Cai ~ Wishing you luck & prosperity ๐ŸŠ๐Ÿงจ
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Musk Tweet Rhythm Trader

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Elon Musk # tweets August 15 - August 17, 2026?

1.03 days elapsed · 0.97 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

24

excl. replies

Predicted Total

43

52% confidence LOW DATA SHORT

Daily Rate

23.2

posts/day

Hourly Rate

0.82

posts/hour

Today

12

Rhythm: 0.0x

Progress 51.6%
pred V3b: 43 (ฯƒ=17.3) | pred B: 43 (ฯƒ=22.5, win=6h) | flat: 43

Predicted Range: 40-64 posts

Model: 54.1% · Market: 70.0%

-15.9% edge

Market Distribution (10 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
<40 26.0% 34.2%(30.9) +8.2% $40,092
40-64 70.0% 54.1%(48.6) -15.9% $24,268
65-89 7.0% 11.4%(18.2) +4.4% $29,605
90-114 0.6% 0.4%(2.2) -0.2% $41,092
115-139 0.1% 0.0%(0.1) -0.1% $44,217
140-164 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $16,923
165-189 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $8,347
190-214 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $3,264
215-239 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $4,806
240+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $4,113

Elon Musk # tweets August 14 - August 21, 2026?

2.03 days elapsed · 4.97 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

34

excl. replies

Predicted Total

139

28% confidence LOW DATA

Daily Rate

16.7

posts/day

Hourly Rate

0.88

posts/hour

Today

12

Rhythm: 0.0x

Progress 29.0%
pred V3b: 139 (ฯƒ=57.3) | pred B: 139 (ฯƒ=57.3, win=24h) | flat: 139

Predicted Range: 120-139 posts

Model: 14.2% · Market: 10.8%

+3.4% edge

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
20-39 0.1% 0.9% +0.8% $1,883
40-59 0.1% 4.3% +4.2% $1,883
60-79 0.1% 7.0% +6.9% $30,946
80-99 0.4% 10.0% +9.6% $67,613
100-119 3.4% 12.6% +9.2% $75,628
120-139 10.8% 14.2% +3.4% $44,842
140-159 23.0% 14.1% -8.9% $11,476
160-179 28.0% 12.4% -15.6% $16,571
180-199 20.0% 9.7% -10.3% $23,681
200-219 13.0% 6.7% -6.3% $11,421
220-239 5.0% 4.1% -0.9% $8,388
240-259 1.8% 2.2% +0.4% $11,440
260-279 0.8% 1.1% +0.3% $16,565
280-299 0.3% 0.5% +0.2% $32,841
300-319 0.3% 0.2% -0.1% $49,658
320-339 0.3% 0.1% -0.2% $52,112
340-359 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $38,794
360-379 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $35,717
380-399 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $43,006
400-419 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $28,243
420-439 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $10,328
440-459 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $7,201
460-479 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $6,646
480-499 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $6,646
500+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $48,717
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $2,883

Elon Musk # tweets August 11 - August 18, 2026?

5.03 days elapsed · 1.97 days left
ACTIVE

Current Posts

133

excl. replies

Predicted Total

171

72% confidence LOW DATA

Daily Rate

26.4

posts/day

Hourly Rate

0.81

posts/hour

Today

12

Rhythm: 0.0x

Progress 71.9%
pred V3b: 171 (ฯƒ=25.0) | pred B: 171 (ฯƒ=32.5, win=24h) | flat: 171

Predicted Range: 160-179 posts

Model: 33.2% · Market: 34.0%

-0.8% edge

Market Distribution (26 ranges)

Market = Polymarket price Model = our predicted probability Edge = Model - Market
Range Market Model Edge Volume
120-139 0.1% 4.6%(5.6) +4.5% $184,590
140-159 3.0% 23.8%(22.5) +20.8% $171,138
160-179 34.0% 33.2%(27.5) -0.8% $125,334
180-199 44.0% 25.3%(23.3) -18.7% $88,746
200-219 17.0% 10.5%(13.7) -6.5% $69,919
220-239 3.2% 2.4%(5.6) -0.8% $66,109
240-259 0.8% 0.3%(1.6) -0.5% $87,166
260-279 0.4% 0.0%(0.3) -0.4% $78,333
280-299 0.2% 0.0%(0.0) -0.2% $80,656
300-319 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% $79,738
320-339 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $43,368
340-359 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $42,323
360-379 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $29,969
380-399 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $25,087
400-419 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $22,118
420-439 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $15,300
440-459 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $15,044
460-479 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $6,196
480-499 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $5,696
500+ 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% $43,869
<20 SETTLED LOST - - $4,115
20-39 SETTLED LOST - - $5,115
40-59 SETTLED LOST - - $5,715
60-79 SETTLED LOST - - $28,367
80-99 SETTLED LOST - - $53,904
100-119 SETTLED LOST - - $70,450

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Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)

Recent Posts

@elonmusk (10 latest)

Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.

Strategy

How it works:

  1. Monitor Elon's real-time posting rhythm via XTracker
  2. Predict final tweet count based on current rate + time remaining
  3. Compare Model probability vs Market price for each range
  4. Auto-trade when edge is large enough, with risk guards and position sizing

Core idea: Markets react slowly to real-time behavior changes. We capture the gap between what's happening now and what the market assumes.

Order Types

Market Immediate fill at current price. Used when edge is strong and confidence is high.
Limit GTC limit order placed below market price. Fills only if price dips โ€” better entry at lower risk.

Glossary

Market Current YES price on Polymarket (i.e. what traders think the probability is).
Model Our predicted probability for this range, based on current posting rhythm.
Edge Model โˆ’ Market. Positive = underpriced opportunity. Negative = overpriced.
Shares Outcome tokens. Each share pays $1 if the outcome is correct, $0 otherwise.
Convergence How stable the prediction is (rate of change). Higher = more reliable signal.
Progress % of the event's counting period that has elapsed.

Rate Quality

Indicates how confident the model is about the current posting rate. Higher confidence โ†’ lower edge threshold.

Normal Posting rate is stable and within expected range. Highest confidence.
Burst Posting rate spiking well above average. Model is cautious โ€” requires higher edge to trade.
Lull Posting rate is below average. Temporary slowdown โ€” model is slightly cautious.
Sleep Gap No posts in 2h+, likely sleeping. Model leans on historical averages until activity resumes.
Low Data Extended silence (6h+). Very low confidence โ€” model requires much higher edge to act.
๐• Unstable Twitter health check failing (30minโ€“2h). Treated as lull โ€” higher edge required.
๐• Outage Twitter down 2h+. Tweet count stale โ€” all signals paused until recovery.

Risk Controls

Take Profit Auto-sell when return exceeds target. Locks in gains.
Stop Loss Auto-sell when loss exceeds threshold. Limits downside.
Spike Pause Pauses new entries during rapid posting bursts to avoid chasing volatility.
Time Exit Closes positions near event end to avoid resolution risk.

Config

Active Events 3
Poll Interval 120s
Trade Sizing $2 โ€“ $4.0

Data: XTracker · Prices: Gamma API

Counting: Posts + Quotes + Reposts

Replies do NOT count