Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?
Current Posts
365
excl. replies
Predicted Total
367
95% confidence
Daily Rate
52.4
posts/day
Hourly Rate
2.18
posts/hour
Today
89
Rhythm: 8.7x
Predicted Range: 360-379 posts
Model: 93.7% · Market: 96.0%
Market Distribution (23 ranges)
| Range | Market | Model | Edge | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300-319 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $1,456,707 |
| 320-339 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $1,966,898 |
| 340-359 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $2,285,231 |
| 360-379 | 96.0% | 93.7% | -2.3% | $1,746,643 |
| 380-399 | 3.8% | 6.3% | +2.6% | $1,587,160 |
| 400-419 | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% | $1,135,543 |
| 420-439 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $765,695 |
| 440-459 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $631,501 |
| 460-479 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $476,155 |
| 480-499 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $362,793 |
| 500-519 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $275,617 |
| 520-539 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $270,444 |
| 540-559 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $255,577 |
| 560-579 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $306,073 |
| 580-599 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $369,151 |
| 600-619 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $234,089 |
| 620-639 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $147,495 |
| 640-659 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $131,795 |
| 660-679 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $178,478 |
| 680-699 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $116,105 |
| 700-719 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $139,631 |
| 720-739 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $114,967 |
| 740+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $259,627 |
No signals — current rhythm doesn't show sufficient edge (>20%) vs market prices
Elon Musk # tweets February 6 - February 13, 2026?
Current Posts
252
excl. replies
Predicted Total
444
56% confidence
Daily Rate
63.4
posts/day
Hourly Rate
2.64
posts/hour
Today
89
Rhythm: 8.7x
Predicted Range: 440-459 posts
Model: 18.4% · Market: 13.7%
Market Distribution (21 ranges)
| Range | Market | Model | Edge | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $348,101 |
| 200-219 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $381,700 |
| 220-239 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $322,734 |
| 240-259 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $279,857 |
| 260-279 | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.1% | $303,612 |
| 280-299 | 0.4% | 0.1% | -0.3% | $252,487 |
| 300-319 | 1.0% | 0.1% | -0.9% | $238,304 |
| 320-339 | 2.4% | 0.5% | -1.8% | $203,375 |
| 340-359 | 4.6% | 1.7% | -2.9% | $198,401 |
| 360-379 | 8.3% | 4.2% | -4.1% | $174,817 |
| 380-399 | 11.3% | 8.4% | -2.9% | $153,601 |
| 400-419 | 14.4% | 13.6% | -0.9% | $143,484 |
| 420-439 | 13.6% | 17.6% | +4.0% | $159,542 |
| 440-459 | 13.7% | 18.4% | +4.7% | $127,293 |
| 460-479 | 11.5% | 15.4% | +4.0% | $154,944 |
| 480-499 | 7.0% | 10.5% | +3.5% | $119,301 |
| 500-519 | 6.2% | 5.7% | -0.5% | $106,088 |
| 520-539 | 3.1% | 2.5% | -0.6% | $152,756 |
| 540-559 | 1.6% | 0.9% | -0.7% | $141,231 |
| 560-579 | 0.9% | 0.2% | -0.6% | $220,710 |
| 580+ | 2.1% | 0.1% | -2.0% | $264,748 |
No signals — current rhythm doesn't show sufficient edge (>20%) vs market prices
Elon Musk # tweets February 9 - February 11, 2026?
Current Posts
112
excl. replies
Predicted Total
231
49% confidence
Daily Rate
115.2
posts/day
Hourly Rate
4.8
posts/hour
Today
89
Rhythm: 8.7x
Predicted Range: 215-239 posts
Model: 36.8% · Market: 12.2%
Market Distribution (9 ranges)
| Range | Market | Model | Edge | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $187,478 |
| 65-89 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $88,626 |
| 90-114 | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.1% | $131,011 |
| 115-139 | 4.5% | 0.1% | -4.4% | $94,091 |
| 140-164 | 26.2% | 0.5% | -25.7% | $98,917 |
| 165-189 | 29.5% | 5.1% | -24.4% | $82,036 |
| 190-214 | 23.8% | 21.2% | -2.7% | $75,302 |
| 215-239 | 12.2% | 36.8% | +24.6% | $87,435 |
| 240+ | 2.3% | 23.3% | +21.0% | $211,122 |
Trading Signals (Edge > 20%)
Rhythm-based edge detectionModel says 0.5% likely, market at 26.2% → overpriced, buy NO
Model says 36.8% likely, market only at 12.2% → underpriced, buy YES
Model says 5.1% likely, market at 29.5% → overpriced, buy NO
Model says 23.3% likely, market only at 2.3% → underpriced, buy YES
Open Positions
| Market | Entry | Shares | Cost | Now | Value | P&L | Return | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
240+ YES PAPER February 9 February 11 Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-february-9-february-11 Market ID: 1351917 Opened: 2026-02-10 16:14 |
0.02¢ | 186.1 | $4.00 | 0.02¢ | $4.28 | +$0.28 | +7.0% | Edge: 21.0% |
|
215-239 YES PAPER February 9 February 11 Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-february-9-february-11 Market ID: 1351914 Opened: 2026-02-10 15:28 |
0.11¢ | 36.5 | $4.00 | 0.12¢ | $4.46 | +$0.46 | +11.4% | Edge: 24.6% |
|
165-189 NO PAPER February 9 February 11 Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-february-9-february-11 Market ID: 1351907 Opened: 2026-02-10 14:13 |
0.72¢ | 5.6 | $4.00 | 0.70¢ | $3.92 | $-0.08 | -2.1% | Edge: -24.4% |
|
140-164 NO PAPER February 9 February 11 Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-february-9-february-11 Market ID: 1351905 Opened: 2026-02-10 13:41 |
0.71¢ | 5.7 | $4.00 | 0.74¢ | $4.18 | +$0.18 | +4.5% | Edge: -25.7% |
|
115-139 NO PAPER February 9 February 11 Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Event: elon-musk-of-tweets-february-9-february-11 Market ID: 1351902 Opened: 2026-02-10 13:41 |
0.78¢ | 5.2 | $4.00 | 0.95¢ | $4.93 | +$0.93 | +23.2% | Edge: -4.4% |
Last 24h Post Activity (excl. replies)
Recent Posts
@elonmusk (10 latest)Main feed posts, quotes & reposts only. Replies excluded.
RT @Robbie_Reasons: A child victim of 100 rapists. Our country has failed her and thousands like her. https://t.co/PrzkdwJcVG
2026-02-10T14:56:06
RT @shaunmmaguire: The Guardian has been at the epicenter of the most horrifically wrong intel related stories for at least the last 15 yea…
2026-02-10T14:54:58
🤨
2026-02-10T14:54:23
RT @grok: @farzyness Sure, I'll break it down simply: Today, we write "code" (instructions in languages like Python) that gets turned into…
2026-02-10T14:52:54
Bannon is evil
2026-02-10T14:50:18
RT @iam_smx: This is Elon Musk's most inspiring speech of all times “Life can't just be about solving one miserable problem after another,…
2026-02-10T14:49:38
https://t.co/Ib0KITGGZT
2026-02-10T14:48:59
RT @ArthurMacwaters: @elonmusk this is statistically a fact :
2026-02-10T14:48:19
RT @memeticsisyphus: This one is almost too much to bear. He forced a woman in her own car with a gun, raped her, made her drive to an atm…
2026-02-10T14:31:21
RT @Jennifer_Arcuri: Never are those who hide court documents been on the right side of history. 🇬🇧
2026-02-10T14:29:48
Strategy
Rhythm-based edge detection:
- Track Elon's real-time posting rhythm (hourly/daily rate)
- Extrapolate current rhythm into end-of-period distribution
- Compare Model probability vs Market price
- When the gap (edge) exceeds 20%, generate a signal
Key insight: Markets price off historical averages. Our model uses current behavior + remaining time to predict the final total. We win on reaction speed.